The whiskey industry has been riding high for over a decade, with demand for bourbon, Scotch, rye, and other spirits soaring both in the U.S. and internationally. However, in recent years, whispers of a whiskey glut have emerged, signaling a potential shift in the market. While this might sound like a problem for producers, it could be a surprising boon for consumers. Here’s what the current whiskey glut might mean for whiskey lovers and collectors.

What’s Causing the Whiskey Glut?

Several factors are converging to create this surplus of whiskey:

Boom and Bust Cycles: The last decade saw a whiskey renaissance, with craft distilleries booming and major players ramping up production to meet skyrocketing demand. Anticipating continued growth, distilleries laid down barrels to mature over many years, but now that demand has leveled off, more whiskey is available than is being consumed.

COVID-19’s Market Impact: The pandemic disrupted supply chains and led to unpredictable changes in demand. While at-home consumption rose during lockdowns, on-premise sales took a hit, causing producers to overestimate the need for new stock. This led to a backlog of whiskey barrels waiting to be sold.

Global Trade Complications: Trade disputes, like the U.S.-EU tariff battles, have affected whiskey exports. With tariffs on American whiskey just recently lifted, the U.S. whiskey market is only now beginning to recalibrate.

Overestimated Growth in New Markets: With optimistic eyes on the international market, distillers overproduced, but demand in some target markets hasn’t met expectations, especially in regions with stringent alcohol restrictions.

What Does the Glut Mean for Consumers?

For whiskey drinkers, this surplus could lead to benefits that were previously unimaginable during the whiskey boom.

More Affordable Prices: Increased supply without proportional demand growth usually leads to price reductions. While high-end, limited-edition bottles may still command premium prices, the glut could put downward pressure on mid-range bottles, making it easier to enjoy quality whiskey without breaking the bank.

Discounted Premium Releases: Distilleries with an abundance of aged stock may need to release older whiskey at competitive prices. This can mean access to 10- or 12-year-old bottles at prices usually reserved for younger options. For those with a taste for premium releases, now could be the time to explore aged expressions from major brands.

More Experimental Bottlings: Distillers facing a glut often get creative. With more barrels aging than planned, brands might release new blends or try different aging techniques, cask finishes, or barrel strengths. This is great news for adventurous whiskey drinkers eager to experience unique, experimental releases.

Expansion of Smaller Brands and Craft Distillers: Small distillers who’ve struggled to compete with big players may find that the glut forces larger brands to lower prices, leveling the playing field. This could allow craft brands to establish a niche, bringing even more variety and choice for consumers.

Improved Quality at Lower Tiers: Brands may also “up-blend” their lower-tier products, incorporating older or higher-quality whiskey to stand out in a competitive market. This means that even budget bottles may become richer and more complex, making good whiskey more accessible at every price point.

What To Watch Out For as a Consumer

While the whiskey glut presents many exciting opportunities, it’s wise to approach the market with some caution.

Beware of Repackaged Stock: Some distilleries may try to rebrand existing stock to move it off the shelves. Look carefully at new releases to see if they’re genuinely unique expressions or simply repackaged standard offerings.

Watch for Market Rebalancing: Although a glut means better prices now, the market could correct itself over time. Demand might eventually catch up, especially if brands cut production, leading to tighter supplies in the future. It might be worth stocking up on favorites or securing special bottles during this more affordable period.

Stay Informed About Regional Trends: Whiskey demand varies by region, so the glut may not affect prices or availability evenly. Following industry news and trends can help you take advantage of deals when they appear.

For whiskey enthusiasts, the current glut can be a golden opportunity. The surge in supply means greater availability, potentially lower prices, and more variety, providing a unique chance to explore new bottles, broaden your collection, and find quality whiskey at great value. I saw more allocated product over Thanksgiving weekend than I ever have. The prices on the top tier bottles have decreases ~20% compared to last year at this time. 

Ultimately, this could be a time of discovery for consumers and an era of adaptation for the industry—creating the perfect climate for whiskey lovers to raise a glass to the next chapter in whiskey’s story. Cheers!